The situation of 'Italy in terms of country risk' is still far from what we saw in the 90s when the cost of refinancing was much higher with an even higher debt, which was really a big risk. " It tells Radiocor Kockerbeck Alexander, analyst for Moody's rating of the Italian manager. The market for government bonds, and therefore of the CDS (credit default swaps to cover the risk of default), 'is very nervous and is exaggerating in the opposite direction "after" almost erased the spread on the debt of several European governments' during the period preceding the crisis. "

These market indicators, such as the spread of the securities of State and Cds, and generally all the ratings implied market 'move - Kockerbeck says - so much more volatile of our rating. It is important to do this because unlike before the crisis, in the period between 2003 and 2008, these indicators were more favorable for our rating. Now it's not because the market is dominated by a great aversion to risk. " In this way, it tends "to bring together all the countries that are not in a benchmarking group and is exaggerating."

"For a long time after the launch of the euro - continues the analyst - has often repeated that the markets had lost the ability to punish governments. In a situation of convergence, all invested in securities of state especially when the returns were a little higher, and the spreads have flattened. " At that point, in some cases did not reflect the spread plus the different credit quality "in terms of single country, but" now is exaggerating in the opposite direction. "

Our rating 'has not and will not have this kind of volatility "because" trying to look at what happens during the crisis and how can it be the situation after the crisis. We do not want to give an opinion on one consequence of the economic cycle, but on the whole situation from a structural point of view and there are many parameters that enter into this assessment. The evolution of the spread is not particularly important in this regard. "

"It is clear - continue Kockerbeck - that for many countries now the cost of refinancing the debt is higher given the market, but we must not forget that even the benchmark on which we measure the spread is very low." The final cost of this situation on the Italian public debt "remains content especially when you compare with what we saw in the 90s, when interest rates were higher and the country had problems with inflation and currency. What we see now is not yet dramatic, but still a higher cost. "

Finally, it is to be observed, according Kockerbeck, that "the average life of the Italian public debt has been stretched so that the impact of this increased cost of refinancing on the overall cost of debt does not happen immediately." It is also clear that in many European countries "there is a great need for funding right now in 2009 and this increases the tension." "We are seeing - concluded the analyst - market conditions extreme, very strong and tension, in terms of behavior, a strong aversion to risk and total reversal of what we saw before the crisis. The truth would be in the middle, but in this market situation is difficult to find. "

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