September has arrived. The month, usually falling stock exchanges began. And, many are asking this year the rule will be confirmed? Or, will live another exception? Beyond the statements and comments of many experts, the reasons for proceeding with great caution are numerous. The Sole24Ore.com has analyzed without claim of completeness, a few.

Do what I say, do what I do. May be summarized as the analysis of the behavior of many banks and institutional investors. To realize just return my mind to 26 August. On that date, was held an auction of government securities, the demand has exceeded supply. The six months were placed with a weighted average yield of 0.550%. Second axiom, it means a simple yield net of taxes and fees of 0.08 percent. Well - you ask - what shows this? The answer is simple: because the buyers were mostly banks and institutions, this means that these subjects, often engaged in distributing optimism (despite the reservations) on the market rally, they prefer to park their short-term liquidity in with yields close to zero.

"In fact - says Alberto Drusiani expert debenture Albertini Syz - the message of optimism in the markets came with clarity. However, all this security is clearly not on equity. The institutions, which are obviously already exposed sull'azionario prefer to diversify. " One could argue that the current strong inclination of the yield curve, both in the and in Europe, reports the fears of the resumption ' and thus indirectly requires the resumption 'economy. In short, conditions for continuing the ascent of the market there would be. Again, however, we must be careful. The long-term bond discount is overheating of prices, however, seems to be more a consequence 'huge liquidity released by central banks, rather than a real revival 'real economy. As it were, in short, that the effect past wave of liquidity in the market, if the world 'real economy does not allocate stock prices could suffer.

The rally in banks and
Another interesting aspect to be evaluated, also stated that this spreadsheet is the leap of many financial institutions from the lows of March. Just remember if that has grown over 614% over the last 6 months, reaching $ 50 (from $ 7 touched in March). It is true that this is always a price far below than those before the crash: the September 8, 2008 traveled about $ 455. However, the fuel that drove the title was not just recently. . Just last August there was an acceleration 'investors' love for : 3 title last month rose 3.5% on news of the appointment of new CEO Robert Benmosche, in place of Ed Liddy. Then, jumped 63% on rumors that the insurance giant would return to profit (August 5), confirmed the news (for the happiness of the usual insider) August 7, when has published accounts of the second quarter: net profit 1.8 billion and title that earns another 20.5%. Which adds another high jump: August 20, after the words of the Benmoshe good chance to repay the $ 80 billion received by the governmental action are growing by 21 percent. This is a rally "sensible"? Undoubtedly, the quarterly is the sign of a resumption of business, which should be added that, with the state as shareholder, the future of is not at risk. However, many in stressed that the company still has problems. Only two days ago Benmosche through the Journal, has sent an olive branch to the grand old man of the company: Hank Greenberg. Greenberg with the same insurance group which has stood for two cases have received compensation too high. And that has always opposed the sale of assets of the group to raise cash. A strategy that, instead Benmosche says he wants to pursue vigorously. The attempt at "reconciliation" with Greenberg is a sign that the evil, interpreted as weakness, largely in relation to the plan of divestiture.

Sector rotation or escape from stock?
The idea has taken hold, not only against , is that the financial titili have been affected by speculative wave. A huge amount of liquidity trying some back. Now that we found, it is natural that the river of money be directed to other shores. Where? "The pharmaceutical industry 's consumption and basic - answers Mike O'Rourke of Btig - have underperformed. " These areas will in the crosshairs of investors' giving life to a rebate - O'Rourke says - but a lateral movement. " The idea, however, does not convince everyone. "If operators are long on defensive sectors - said John Kosár, Asbury Research - means that are not so sure the much-vaunted economic recovery. Many money managers have invested to seize the moment and not because they believe the stock market. The risk is that, at some point, granparte of them choose to leave at the same time. "

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