DUBAI - Sitting at a table in a bar in the Financial Center, the young English broker leans on the chair and sipping his glass of mineral water with a slice of lemon. "The Abdubai knows what?" Question. Pardon? "Yes, there is an alien who comes to Dubai in the car and sees a sign in Arabic and English. Above it says "Welcome to Abdubai. The man then said to his driver: "We were wrong way .... And the chauffeur says, "Of course not, sir. This is the new Dubai. The old woman ceased to exist November 25, 2009.

Among the gray granite buildings of the financial center of Dubai, in the offices of investment banks, bars, restaurants and trendy shops of the great supermarket of finance, the story travels fast by word of mouth when Dubai World, the largest holding company of the Emirates, has broken the magic of Disneyland in the Persian Gulf, announcing that it was not able to repay 26 billion dollars of debt. A harmless and amusing story, for now. But with a grain of truth about the likely near future in Dubai.
The shockwaves of the earthquake triggered by Dubai World was extinguished on and stock markets are rising again. But to Dubai, this is a crucial week. A panel of creditors will sit for the first time in front at the top of Dubai World and only after 'meeting will know what track the case will continue: on the floor of the store or on the much more problematic than the legal battle. Samer Sakran, manager of the Dubai branch of Al Brooge Securities, does not hide the unknowns: "Local banks seem more condescending - tells -. The problem is the foreign institutions, especially British ones, exposed to five billion dollars, which are not at all happy with this request for a moratorium. "

However it will end, the bubble of Dubai World is set to change more than a balance in the small emirate headed by sixty Mohammed bin Rashid Al Maktoum. Will be scaled down pharaonic projects born from his imagination, such as palm-shaped islands and archipelagos in the shape of the world, but what the will not be able to change the role of Dubai in the Middle East. Just go to Sharjah, Ajman or at Umm al-Quwain, the three other emirates to a stone's throw from here, to realize what would be today without Al Maktoum Dubai: one at the mercy of the rich emirate Abu Dhabi, which alone controls more than 90% of the of the Arab federation. Without the power 'black gold, Al Maktoum had no alternative to do what he did and the only way to turn Dubai into a financial hub, industrial and tourism was to act on the lever of debt. Hundred billion dollars on a of 82 billion, according to the latest assessment of the rating company Moody's. The figure covers the indebtedness of dozens of companies controlled by the government: the Dubai Inc. sits on a mountain of money lent.

The mechanism designed by Al Maktoum, "Big Mo" as he is known here, was partially jammed but the feeling is he'll be back to spin, even if at reduced speed. How could you cancel, for that matter, what was it built? On the road to Abu Dhabi, for miles and miles unfold thousands of industrial warehouses on both sides. Free zone of Jebel Ali, there are more than six thousand companies around the world, many Italian, arrived here for the strategic position 'emirate, for and tax for the existence of infrastructure than in neighboring countries simply do not exist. Business has led companies such as Impregilo, with the desalination of Fisia Italimpianti, and as salinity, on which rests the new concrete pylons supertechnology Underground Dubai. "They can stop even for twenty years and not build anything. Because now they are so forward that can afford this, "says Conrad Chiarentin, CEO of consulting firm Rois in Dubai.

But Dubai in of liquidity, Dubai struggling with debts of its best companies, will not be that of a year ago. Dubai World will sell some of its assets to repay debt and some of its best work may fall into the hands of neighbors of Abu Dhabi. Many people are now betting that the future is nell'emirato largest, where the Sheikh Khalifa bin Zayed Al Nahyan is conducting a project to be $ 200 billion in infrastructure to make Abu Dhabi the new star of the twenty first century. Dubai slows, Abu Dhabi is growing. Welcome to Abdubai.

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